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to all: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...amazing, I've actually been the mellowist person on this thread for the past few months - I think I deserve a gold star, but on a more serious note...1) Market Cap of AGPH - Don't forget that AGPH did an acquisition for stock, and that the number of shares reported in the last quarter is a weighted average. Since John W.& Margie seemingly have all the analyst reports and earnings models at this fingertips, a proper approach would be to look at the models and see how many shares the analysts are using for the September & December quarters. As September is done with (we're in October now), I would multiply the shares outstanding for the December, 1997 quarter x stock price to get market cap. I would agree that understating market cap on the part of the AGPH fan club is..."suspect". 2- Abelson - You all have to understand what Barron's is - a newspaper that has to sell, it is not an academic journal. 3. AGPH pipeline being worth a variable, "X" - Besides Thymetaq, products in the pipeline are YEARS away from commercialzation, touting them is premature. If someone wanted to knock AGPH, the most rational arguement is the fact that clincal results presented to date for Thymetaq are not impressive - to deny this is a lie, therefore in order to justify current valuation, Viracept must continue to grow for many years, not just 2 or 3 - since if Thymetaq is just a me too product, the stock is overvalued. 4. In 6 months, Viracept should be equally as powerful or more as Crix is as a PI - why, especially when in previous posts I suggested that Crix may be more powerful than Viracept - when people follow their prescriptions, etc. In the real world, the virus has had more time to mutate in the presence of Crix - it's been on the market longer, so new transmissions of HIV are more likely to include virus that has at least the beginnings of resistance to Crix. 3 years from now, Crix market share will be between 5-10% of new prescriptions. The virus will also become resistant to Viracept, and a year or two from now, new transmission will seriously start to include virus that could view Viracept as a minor inconvenience. That's the mechanism. In accordance with the wishes of all of you and other needs (having a heel land on my head yesterday), I am spending less time on this thread, & I wish you all a pleasant week end. |
