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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer
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To: Honey_Bee who wrote (145)6/7/2007 2:44:56 PM
From: Boca_PETERead Replies (4) of 2121
 
Regarding the identification of the end of the so-called "secular bear market megatrend" a year after the fact, there may be some needed confirmation methodology in his thinking processes before he feels sure enough to make such an assertion. Perhaps market valuations adjusted to the norm quicker than expected. The question is when to feel comfortable that such valuations will not continue to adjust to the downside to the point of extreme undervaluation.

Then there's the matter of relevancy. If the secular trend is not relevant because all market calls are made on a cyclical basis, who cares except from a curiosity viewpoint, what the secular trend is? Frankly I do because I'd think market risk would be highest when the indexes are butting up near the highs or making marginal new highs, and, vica versa near the lows.

Aside from all the theory, my perception is that the exogenous event risks to the market are currently very high. Countries are dropping their currency links to the dollar, interest rates expected to fall earlier in the year are creeping up, war in the Middle East (ie. Iran vs. US; Israel vs Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas; Turkey vs the Kurds in Northern Iraq; North Korea vs South Korea; China vs Taiwan; and the continuing Iraq upheavals). Add to that the fallout from our inability to secure our own borders and the rising terror risks from that as illustrated by the recently foiled attacks at Fort Dix and JFK Airport area. I don't think these concerns are unreasonable for investors to take into account before plunking down their hard earned money for volatile equity investments and real estate.

JMHO,

P
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