Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.32

+1.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2621)	10/5/1997 8:01:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 10921

Justa and Thread, The VLSI numbers have been cited as alternative to the ML numbers I have used. I am uncomfortable with total dollar figures because they leave, as an exercise for the reader, the determination of total units and cost per unit. This becomes more complicated because the industry will move from lower cost DUV step and repeat to higher cost DUV step and scan. I have seen 800 units and 700 units specified in the posts referenced. Again, the ML numbers are 488, 570, 531, 795, 951 for the years ending 3/98 through 3/02. There is a general concensus in the posts referenced that a faster move to smaller linewidths will cause a faster ramp in DUV lithography. I believe the market has discovered that the rate of the DUV ramp will determine the speed at which the industry will move to smaller linewidths (the tail wagging the dog). In any case we have two models which predict a $4.00 EPS in 2000 or 2001(3/02). Both models use similar parameters and I believe both are definitely not worst case. Cary

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