Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.33

+1.2%

9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2635)	10/5/1997 9:31:00 PM
From: Defrocked	of 10921

<both are definitely not worst case.> What would be your base case? I agree that uncertainty surrounds Cymer's expected EPS but considering today's pricing one is likely receiving value here. Suppose EPS three years from now, Q3 2000, is $4,$3.50 or $2 (off 50% from Maxwell's numbers). The IRR over a 3 year period using today's $27 per share and a 30PE in '00Q3 still look interesting. CASE 1 CASE 2 CASE3 EPS(e) Stk@30PE EPS(e) Stk@30PE EPS(e) Stk@30PE Oct-97 $0.90 $(27.0) $0.90 $(27.0) $0.90 $(27.00) Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 $4.00 $120.0 $3.00 $90.00 $2.00 $60.00 IRR-C1= 64% IRR-C2= 49% IRR-C3= 30% Good investing all.

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