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Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
Posted by Khebab on June 14, 2007 - 11:53am
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 12 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2009 and 2011 at 78.23 - 87.12 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge.
Executive Summary:
Monthly production records are unchanged except for NGPL:
All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.43 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2007 (2 months) is 84.26 mbpd, up 0.2 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 81.24 mbpd, down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 73.09 mbpd, down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
NGPL: the peak date is now February 2007 at 8.24 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 8.15 mbpd, up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: February 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.35 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago.
New forecasts added: Projections from Frederik Robelius and the Hybrid Shock Model.
Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 12 different projections is showing a kind of production plateau around 83 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.
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