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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 177.33+1.2%9:30 AM EST

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To: Defrocked who wrote (2636)10/5/1997 11:14:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 10921
 
Defrocked,

RE: "...but considering today's pricing one is likely receiving value here."

I agree that CYMI looks like a good value at $27, but a worst case scenario would start considering the following factors:

1. Komatsu - Japan has traditionally been an uneven playing field. If Komatsu's lasers APPROACH CYMI's in quality, CYMI could lose 80% of the Nikon and Canon accounts;

2. Industry cycles - Jean-Philippe Dauvin, group vice president and chief economist at SGS-Thomson Microelectronics and guru of the semiconductor industry, has predicted the end of the up cycle in 2001-2002. An anticipated fall off in sales and earnings could reduce CYMI's PE to 15 in 2000 and produce today's price followed by further declines in a semi-equip bear market.

Cary
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