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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 174.97+1.6%2:17 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2641)10/5/1997 11:54:00 PM
From: Ian@SI   of 10921
 
Cary,

Rather than "...I have been very wrong and he very right in the recent past.", I would suggest, "I am less risk averse than you. So far, I've been well rewarded."

Certainly, I have only praise for the success of your investing strategy as described in this thread.

Your 1/2 bucket of cold water is valid to keep in mind.

1. Risk from Komatsu within the next 3 years is, IMO, minimal.
2. Risk of a cyclical downturn by 2002 is probably somewhere between 30 and 50%.

I prefer a scenario which calls for profitless prosperity for many of the chipmakers while the equipment makers continue to thrive.

There are too many things happening along the roadmap. I don't anticipate a major downturn that soon.

Ian.
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