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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: NOW who wrote (66245)6/18/2007 2:20:36 AM
From: Chispas  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
January 2, 2013 – "how does the financial world look" ?

John Hoffman

When the financial markets all around the world open on January 2, 2013, how will look? It is a Monday. The New Year has made many skeptical because of the ‘13’ unlucky number. The biggest question in the minds of people is what happens to the financial markets in the next six years?

The Monday will be quiet. The financial market players are disenchanted as usual after six years of bear market. They look back 2007 – the deal making days of private equity. It was the boom time from mortgage refinance and cash out on interest only loans.

Dow Jones Industrial Average is struggling to hold on to 3000 level. The long bonds yield 1.00%. The discount rate is 0.25%. Dollar index has plummeted to 70. Gold is trading around $300 an ounce in spite of lower dollar.

The commodity market has plummeted. The CRB index is hovering around 180. Hydrogen cars are fast replacing gasoline and diesel cars. The oil is trading at $15 a barrel. The Uranium price keeps going up. Taking clue for India-US nuclear deal. Many nations have followed suit and opted for American, French and Russian nuclear energy under safeguards.

The deflation is rampant. The companies have lost pricing power. People buy everything on the Internet. Internet Banks have made millions of Bank employees jobless. The healthcare industry went through a nasty phase of competition from the emerging countries. The unemployment rate stands at 21%. The health care is now guaranteed, much lower in quality and price.

Real estate prices hover around its lows in the last sixty years. Prices are falling fast. The lawmakers have withdrawn the second home mortgage tax breaks. A flat tax proposal can eliminate real estate tax and mortgage interest tax break all together.

The social security is in deep trouble. The lawmakers are debating if 75or 78 will be the official age before one can get the benefits.

The GDP declines at 3.5% per year. There are signs that the deep prolonged recession can turn into severe depression.

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