The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Night Trader who wrote (79821)	6/20/2007 3:50:27 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) of 306849

(heavy going even though I have a math/prob background). Did you get your degree with Tizzie? Or do you have some other degree awardable handicap? What he's saying is the conventional normal curve based models underestimate the occurrence of extreme events leading to a mispricing. Wrong. "Probability doesn't matter" means the chance of a payoff is small but not as small as conventional calculations predict. Totally wrong. His comments about ATM options agree with my own research: index options are generally overpriced ATM but often less so for individual stocks. Ridiculous nonsense from a hack amateur. There's even a small industry that shorts one and goes long the other. There's a huge industry which uses the small industry of fools to get regular income. Option buying does not inherently have negative expectation as you claim That proves that you have no knowledge about this subject. prob/math? Hey boy, who you tryin' to kid? unless as I say you're speaking of ATM on indexes. That is irrelevant. It makes no difference what vehicle is being optioned. They're all subject to the same natural laws described by option pricing models.

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