Befriend the Trend Trading Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

4:00 PM EST

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From: Dr. Stoxx	6/22/2007 10:02:09 AM
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Fwiw, this is what I wrote to our subscribers this morning...it gives a tentative map going forward: Good morning traders! Despite yesterday's remarkable recovery off the lows to close higher, there remains a great deal of downside pressure on the broader indices. The Nasdaq is poised to break up and out to new near-term highs but the indicators are not yet supportive of the move. As an op-ex Friday today's trading is likely to be very choppy and muted. There remains some upside space for the indices to move within over the next few sessions but I'd be very suprised if the ETF proxies get any higher than these levels: QQQQ (48), SPY (153), DIA (136). At those levels we start running into overhead trendline resistance which would confirm that the indices are coiling up in a consolidative triangle. And as of this morning, the path of least resistance, according to our blend of oscillators, is pointing to a downside break. Still, what we will likely see going into the end of the month (next 6 sessions into next Friday) is a test of the recent lows early, then a strong but limited upside test to close the month on window dressing. Primary concerns remain focused on bond yields and rising interest rates abroad. Central banks are moving into a tightening posture even as our own Fed remains neutral. This spells trouble ahead for our markets even if our rates do not rise. Our general map going forward: weak July and August, flat September, and a nice rally in the 4Q to close the year. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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