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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Real Man who wrote (75829)6/23/2007 8:38:58 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Hi VI,

It appears there is something to be said about this being the second week before options expiry.

During both weeks the stories were the same.Interest rates blasting off too fast - especially in last weeks action.

This week impacted the market negatively and yet the rate/yield spike was much more contained compared to two weeks ago.

Me thinks all those who sold calls just bought back their beloved stock and can now make a paycheck next month.

This is nervousness before good earnings come out again.

Realestate will be off and maybe energy - they've been weak at times - oil rolling over or just peaking early?

When August/September shows us no hurricanes (I'm hopeful here) we could see gas get to 2.25 again and we'll all be grateful.

I see tech coming into leadership as a late cycle play and this cycle is far from over.

What will end this cycle is inflation coming from an overheated Chuina as China must pay for increased cost of food for their multibillion population.

Then and only then will Central Bank of China get religion on inflation.

Of course we'll have it too and the central baks in unison will give us 7-9 % rates.

By then all cash must come out of markets and TIPS or a 10 year ladder will set up nice rates (not real rates) and capital gains on the sale of bonds.

We've got a long way to go - don't forget an election in 17 months.Some where in there fiscal responsibility will be forgotten.

The true color of the DEMS is already in bloom - PORK attached to everything bipartisan and class warfare over the rich not paying enough.

God I hate it already.

Bob
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