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Non-Tech : Climate Change, Global Warming, Weather Derivatives, Investi

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From: aerosappy	6/23/2007 9:33:12 AM
	of 442

Global Weather Pattern showing its Hand. [ great info from Accudean at IV ] investorvillage.com Take a look at the profound shift in the Southern Oscillation Index. The pulse as measured by the normalized difference in pressure between Darwin, AU and Tahiti takes approx 11 days to reach the US west coast (subtropics), add just over a day per timezone to get 15 days to clear the east, Another big change has also occurred as the MJO (which I call "The Weather Wheel") is moving through more phases. Here is the worldwide biases in Mean Surface Level Pressure for Phase 4. By the end of next week we wil be in Phase 6 which is a neutral signal for the US but if the wheel stays intact Positive SOI results will continue and that has implications by the second week of July when we will find out if yet again (April and early June) the MJO strongly amplifies and holds in Phase 8 and 1. During the second and 3rd week of July there will be a window of opportunity for Tropical development that would target NE Gulf, FL, or the SE Coast. Regardless of whether an actual named system forms keep an "eye" on how stormy it gets near those regions because it will be an indicator of how busy the season can become around the 3rd week of August and into September. My gut instinct is that we get a named storm in the vicinity of the US SE Coast mid to late second week of July. Ocean Temperature anomalies are not yet providing evidence of excess heat to feed Katrina and Rita like systems but certainly indicate a busy above average season in terms of quantity. One aspect of this season which I believe may surprise some will be the overall size of storms and an ability to hold strength further inland. Cool near the Azores and warmth near Greenland is a solid Negative NAO signal. During the summer High pressure over Greenland affects weather inverse to winter because the low height zone is further north. Therefore High Pressure east of the Mississippi is promoted and the risk of excessive heat, particularly in the eastern big cities is greatly increased. Terrible past heat waves have come courtesy of a summer Negative NAO. Next week will be such an event with 95-100 common from NC north and east to Boston Mon-Thurs. A late summer "Newfoundland Wheel" drives tropical storms and hurricanes further south and west underneath. Therefore this season will be known for landfalls. Looking ahead to Fall and Winter Typically La Nina summers live on well into the Fall, particularly in the East. Long growing season. Winter gets tricky because either a warm non-event or if the feature (La Nina) fades back to neutral then we must look for other signals to guide us, Could the Negative NAO expected in late summer show itself again in winter? The Bottom Line 1. Weather Pattern favors above average quantity of Tropical Storms and Landfalls. Look for development probably near the Eastern Seaboard (NE Gulf less likely) in the second week of July. 2. La Nina is kicking in to fan the flames of land based heat sources (Rockies and GA + SC drought regions) thus firing up temperatures well above average for the summer. Summer to linger deep into fall. 3. There is an opportunity around July4th for the East to briefly see a cooldown which incidentally would setup a tropical development opportunity in the second week. 4. Not sure yet about how many Cat 3 + systems but the ones that form and hit land will be large and maintain strength further inland than expected. Dean

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