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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Darryl Olson who wrote (4626)10/6/1997 11:30:00 AM
From: Maxwell   of 25960
 
Defrocked and Darryl:

Your estimates on CYMI stock price and EPS are quite reasonable. My estimates are based on the VLSI's research. I think their numbers are quite conservative. I think the the DRAM makers and Intel will migrate to .25u and .18u much faster than VLSI's projected roadmap. Thus the # of steppers for 1998 and 1999 will be much larger. I agree that 1998 is the year for CYMI. CYMI's stock price will hit your target late 1997/early 1998 when all the analysts realized that CYMI will eat a lion share of all the huge demand of DUV excimer laser steppers in 1998. I think you guys better load up your truck now.

As far as this Q3 earnings, here is my feelings. Last Q2, CYMI's revenue was $50M with over $120M in backlog. During Q3 CYMI has increased its capacity. Thus their revenue will be over $50M for sure. I estimate the lower number for their revenue would be $60M.
They may incur some additional costs due to the ramp. I am not sure about the share dilution. I think they will make at least $0.24 EPS.

Maxwell
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