Street Pulse: Panacos takes on HIV
WASHINGTON, June 29 (UPI) -- United Press International interviewed Panacos Pharmaceuticals' new Chief Executive Officer Alan Dunton about the company's lead product, a potential new HIV treatment, bevirimat, which attacks the problem of HIV drug resistance with a novel mechanism of action and which the company hopes to bring to market in about three years.
Q: Bevirimat targets a novel aspect of the HIV virus's development, its maturation process. Can you explain how it works?
A: It's a novel mechanism and that's what has us excited and the community excited and that's what makes it such a viable project because the real issue in HIV infection is drug resistance and, as you know, patients become resistant to one or more drugs that they're on over time. There's no such thing as a drug that's out there that does not have a resistance profile after time.
So bevirimat acts by a brand new mechanism -- we're calling it a maturation inhibitor -- and it blocks the maturation of an HIV protein called GAG. If that GAG protein doesn't mature -- meaning it gets cut up into pieces by an enzyme called protease -- then it can't become a mature, reproducing virus. So bevirimat actually binds to GAG at a very specific site to block (HIV's) maturation. And this is a mechanism that no other drug out there -- that's currently marketed or in development -- has.
sciencedaily.com
Consider the Potential, Follow the Timeline
Panacos' data demonstrate that maturation inhibitors could become one of the next classes of drugs on the market for HIV, opening up a multibillion-dollar opportunity worldwide.
If the company can follow the approval timelines I have discussed, PA-457 could generate $500 million to $1 billion in sales worldwide in 2010. Since HIV drugs can be distributed with a relatively small organization, Panacos should be able to generate 50% operating margins.
So for the point of this discussion, let's assume $750 million in sales and $250 million in net income on a taxed basis. I would expect about 30% dilution by then with equity offerings, and a 25 to 30 price-to-earnings multiple would still lead to a $100 to $120 stock by the end of 2009, which equates to roughly 75% to 85% annualized returns. But there's an opportunity today too, as I believe Panacos is worth about $20 to $24 currently & trading last at $3.23 is unreal.
PA-457 has demonstrated efficacy in a well-defined patient population where newer, better treatments are desperately needed.
Panacos Pharmaceuticals Inc. study showed its experimental AIDS drug PA-457 reduced blood levels of the human immunodeficiency virus by 90% in a study of HIV-infected volunteers.
PA-457 is the first member of a new class of antiviral drugs that block maturation of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, by causing the release of virus particles incapable of spreading the infection in the body.
Inhibitor PA 457 from Panacos, Dosed Orally Once Daily and Active against Resistant Virus, Is Potential Breakthrough Drug Treatment for HIV
The Phase II study met its primary endpoint by demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in the level of HIV in the blood compared to placebo. The median reduction in HIV viral load in the trial was greater than 1 log10, or a 90% decrease, at the highest dose. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Fast Track designation to PA-457.
(HEARD the sell off was due to end of Qtr Institutional rebalancing & the delist from Russell 3000 INDEX fund forced to sell out
russell.com
I'm going to buy a chunk after my own research i feel the reward is far greater than the risk.
cheers VF |
