Immigration proved too hot to handle
It seemed like the time was right for reform, but a lot has changed since the 1986 overhaul.
For most of this year, immigration reform looked like an issue whose time had finally come, with the unusual confluence of a Republican president, a Democratic Congress and the public all demanding a solution.
But the spectacular collapse of the Senate's bipartisan immigration legislation last week demonstrated that the seemingly auspicious political environment was no match for an issue that was just too hot to handle.
The bill's demise relegates illegal immigration to a backlog of national problems — such as Social Security's impending insolvency and the federal budget deficit — that the president and Congress have not been able to solve.
"It smells an awful lot like Social Security," said former Rep. Leon E. Panetta, a California Democrat who had a big hand in the last overhaul of immigration law, in 1986. "People are hesitant to touch a solution, because it is going to aggravate some very powerful constituencies who are going to come after them."
The obstacles to reaching a consensus on immigration speak volumes about the nation's politics and culture — and how much they have changed in the two decades since Congress last dealt with the problem.
Since President Reagan signed the landmark legislation, which legalized some 3 million undocumented immigrants, the media environment has been transformed by talk radio and a 24/7 cable news cycle that fuels emotions on the political extremes. An influx of illegal immigrants has altered the population across the nation, not just in a handful of border states. And the political system has become so polarized that lawmakers' compromise-building skills seem to have atrophied.
In the wake of those changes, the Senate battle over immigration showed how hard it now is for Congress and the president to confront emotional issues when an incensed minority tries to derail the efforts.
Polls have shown that most Americans favor allowing illegal immigrants to become citizens if they learn English, pay fines and meet other requirements. But the opinions expressed on senatorial phones and in e-mails were overwhelmingly those of the politically agitated opposition.
Proponents of legalization contend the problem of illegal immigrants will only get harder to solve as the number grows — and as public anger intensifies.
"The divisions get deeper and wider with the passage of time," said Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), a presidential candidate.
But the issue is not an easy one to overlook: Illegal immigration is woven tightly into the fabric of day-to-day lives across the country.
Failure to decide how to handle the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. is tantamount to establishing a permanent underclass larger than the population of Ohio.
Absent of federal action, a major shift could occur in the national balance of power on illegal immigration: More state and local governments are likely to act on their own in response to clamor for a crackdown. The result would be to the detriment of those who seek a solution more accepting of illegal immigrants and could create a patchwork of conflicting laws.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see Bush and Congress revisiting the issue soon. Key players in the debate — especially those who took the lead in seeking a comprehensive solution — are unlikely to risk another dramatic failure.
For Bush, the immigration initiative was the domestic policy capstone of his second-term agenda — and the cornerstone of his plan to expand the GOP by making his party more welcoming to Latinos. Now, his domestic policy cupboard is bare, and his hopes of building a lasting GOP majority are in tatters.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a leading Bush ally on the issue, has seen his presidential prospects dim in no small measure because of his support for the immigration bill. His rivals for the presidency delight in pointing out that he cosponsored the bill with liberal icon Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.).
For Democrats, who control the House and Senate, another failed attempt at immigration overhaul could be exploited by Republicans who criticize their stewardship of Congress as unproductive.
And incumbents of both parties risk the wrath of a public that is increasingly jaundiced about Washington's ability to address major problems.
"Americans don't believe the government is representing them, acting on their behalf," said Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.). "We will not restore their confidence if we fail to act."
The immigration bill, the product of a "grand bargain" by a bipartisan coalition including Kyl and Kennedy, died in part because its backers' enthusiasm wasn't strong enough against the intensity of its opponents.
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