Localized way of life cuts demand for oil
July 5, 2007
Peak oil is here and the U.S. is unprepared.
This is my opinion and the opinion of Eugene Linden in his article "From Peak Oil to Dark Age" in a recent edition of Business Week. Recently, the online "Drudge Report" posted an excerpt from a story critical of British Petroleum's optimistic Statistical Review of World Energy. In other words, the idea of a diminishing world supply of oil combined with increasing demand is suddenly mainstream.
What is the likely impact of peak oil on the United States? Well, when demand exceeds supply, the price goes up until demand is reduced. In this country, we could fairly painlessly reduce demand if a significant number of drivers simply carpooled to work.
But how high will the price at the pump have to be before that happens? Five dollars per gallon? Ten? Whatever that number is, that's where the price will be set for all other less discretionary uses of gasoline and oil.
This will have a devastating effect on our economy and probably the world economy, as well. Globalization depends on cheap transportation.
At this point, there is nothing we can do to avoid the economic depression that will come. We are too deeply invested in a way of living and doing business that will soon be exposed as hopelessly inept and inefficient, and there is not enough time to make the necessary changes.
I hope that the early stages of this crisis will shock us out of complacency and give us the will to re-engineer our society so it can function in the times ahead.
What are we talking about for the long term? What will a working future society look like?
James Kunstler, the author of "The Geography of Nowhere" and "The Long Emergency," says we need to localize our lives: walk instead of drive and bring back the many different types of local businesses that used to be the backbone of our communities. He points out the need for public transportation and emphasizes that we could get an immediate benefit from simply restoring our existing railroad system.
Let's start talking about this, let's get this into the public debate. I suggest that a localized way of life doesn't have to be a step backward. We would have to accept greater social planning than people are accustomed to in this country, but I think it would be worth it.
Jeremy Hickerson of Salem is a computer programmer for Oregon State University. He rides the bus to his work site in Monmouth. He can be reached at hickerj73@yahoo.com.
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