He never seemed to know what might win despite the market's overall ignorance of a particular play. This told me despite his seemingly rigorous geological and management analysis that he was not really that knowledgeable about the CDN mining industry per se, and was not looking at things from a metal scarcity, engineering feasibility and pure in-depth geological perspective. He was and is a street analyst. He had not worked his way up the ranks in the industry with an investment eye. (On the other hand I have seen very good geologists who bet long on the fruitiest deals.) Kaiser always bet long on bets that were dicey geologically. They added up on paper in a dry way but the oomph was not there. I oft suspected that he was getting into these deals because management had promised compensation. No such deal is usually profitable. If they need IR that bad, they are pissing in the wind anyway. The bets are against it from the start confidence-wise.
I always like the way he wrote, and what he did write in depth about geology was generally good. He was not too far off in his facts, so I know he did a respectable research job. The trouble is you have to consider where that gets you if you are not the ne plus ultra in analysis with the very best in speculative future-seeing binoculars. (Those binos often see many futures, you just have to pick the one that is in the best focus) Strictly a mainstream media look at things. And the industry revolves on hubs that most people, even the professionals are not that cognizant the nature of.
Where mines exist, is buried deeply in engineering manuals and wispy unheralded finance connections that are the inside of the inside. Money comes from unkown connections, not all geology is known on the surface or even told about, and not all factors that make a mine are easily discerned. It is an experientially-derived knowledge base, and not much of it is written down. You have to look beyond the surface, and seeing what is below, look beyond again and again. And still you could be wrong. All the ducks have to be in a very straight row to find a mine, even if it there, at the end of a very straight drill string. The drill may stop 5 feet short and that is very hard to predict.
I would rate the Coffins as more industry savvy, but they back bets often that have a weakness vis a vis the likelihood that anyone will back them into production. In other words a play that is deserving in many aspects from one miner's point of view does not necessarily get into production. Sadly I have to tell you that in my most pessimistic days I view our own plays as that type. Well deserving and capable if everything goes right, but fundamentally weak in the eyes of the big money needed to put them into production. Not that the big money is always right. They are only right because they are big money.
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