Mike, looked like old times out there in Nasdaq today with CSCC, ASND, SHVA, et al doing their old rocketman number. Could this rally be for real? I don't think so, though as I said before I could see it lasting through September before nasty reality intrudes. That's why I'm holding off adding my next third, though maybe tomorrow if it feels right I may do some buying. I noticed Dell and Gate are just full speed ahead still. Does this worry you at all? Meanwhile CPQ did nothing today which makes me think my puts are looking pretty good. If CPQ can't move on such a bullish day like today then something must be wrong, don't you think?
I bought puts on CPQ and not gate or dell because I think that those two being direct marketers have more room to deal with the emerging competition than the Compaqs of the world. Thus I would expect those two to hold off the inevitable margin pressure longer and have their stock hold up longer. What says you? Incidentally, I was shocked to hear your prediction of the teens for CPQ next year at this time. Sounds too low for me. If CPQ is in the teens then MU should be at 6 or below. I mean CPQ is the leading PC maker, good management, solid engineering, etc. You are saying that they will lose 2/3 of their market value. Maybe but I don't think so. I don't think they've EVER had a collapse like that. I'll be thrilled to see them hit 50, and 45 would be super. There are lots of other PC makers in the market and if you think CPQ is doing a swan dive you must also think all the other makers are doing the same, correct? |
