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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn

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From: NightOwl	7/10/2007 2:40:50 PM
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Well... I just caught the CEUT presentation replay... There seemed to be a good deal of "good" news on the various FRAM market/gross revenue fronts. But frankly nothing much stood out except one statement Lee made to the effect of: We are "on track to see operating income more than double." Just using the data on the Nasdaq site that would mean FY'07 operating income will top $1,950,000... And that's after a Q1 operating loss of <$22,000>? And presumably continued high R&D costs due to new product development. That suggests an average operating income of $657K per quarter for the remainder of FY'07. With $0 taxes that would put us safely in the $0.03 to 0.04/sh range... until we deduct the @$482K in options expense. That would leave us in the 0.01 to 0.02 level... assuming of course there aren't any write downs for bad silicon on any of these new products. So I guess the real question here is just exactly what do they mean by "more" and just how much can the operating income exceed that $1,950K level? At $482/Q options expense alone will come in at $1,928K for the year. As I think Sr K pointed out a while back... its pretty tough getting excited about 5% EPS growth when practically all of it is eaten by options expense. Unfortunately I didn't hear any suggestion of a "more than double" of the product revenue number. In fact despite all the "exciting" market talk I didn't hear any upward revision of the 20-25% revenue growth forecast at all. Of course they could be waiting for the earnings CC, or Q3 results before hazarding a new guesstimate on the annual totals. After all there is no way for them to be certain about either Q3 or Q4 sales at this point. That seems to be just the way it is in the semi-biz, no matter what your order books say. So maybe they're just being conservative. Even a "safe harbor" will not protect you from the lawyers if you knowingly forecast 40 to 50% revenue growth when you know durn good and well that only an immaculate conception could get you there. <vbg> Unfortunately I think we'd need around 36% revenue growth to offset the options expense and get us a real EPS worth wHooping about. For some reason I believe they'll come close to that... maybe 34%. But then... What do I know? ...I don't even work here! <Hoo><Hoo><ack> 0\|0

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