The coming US dollar crisis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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To: stan_hughes who wrote (326)	7/11/2007 8:31:09 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 71412

We'll see. Euro was created with the same purpose USD served for many years - becoming a global currency, and a mechanism for Europe to export inflation. Now it seems the Euro took the lead in global interest rates trades. Is there room for more appreciation? I guess there is, if Euro rates continue to climb, while US rates stagnate. Overall, though, I would think Euro is somewhat overvalued. Euro is 57% of USDX. Asian currencies are a different story. So, we may get a global currency "crisis", i.e. unwinding carry trade, but it will be mostly related to appreciation of Asian currencies against both the dollar and the Euro. The USDX behavior will be mostly related to dollar/Euro, and it may even bounce. Last time Yen rallied big time in 99, the dollar index did not do anything.

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