Nadine, the real point is that most of what is happening in Iraq at this point has little to do with Al Qaeda and everything to do with sectarian violence and visceral feelings of revenge, fear and defiance
The real point is that the sectarian violence has been and IS BEING fomented by al Qaeda, and perhaps if al Qaeda is stopped from doing more of it, there is still a chance that it can be reversed before it spills into full scale civil war.
Michael Yon - the same Michael Yon who reported in Feb 2005 that Iraq was in a civil war, when the Pentagon was still denying it - has reported on al Qaeda's method: infiltrate a Sunni neighborhood. Shoot any Sunnis who object. Shoot a bunch of Shia in a nearby neighborhood. Wait for the Shia militias to kill a bunch of Sunnis in retaliation. Et voila: hopeless sectarian violence.
The late Zarqawi made this plan explicit in a letter that was intercepted. Fighting Americans wasn't working, he said, so the only chance was to create a civil war. Zawahiri advised him against killing so many Iraqis, but he didn't listen.
Zawahiri gave good advice, as it turned out. Michael Yon now tells us that the surge is making good progress against al Qaeda, mainly because al Qaeda has killed so many Iraqis than even the Sunnis are turning against it. And American and Iraqi units are posting themselves on the faultlines between neighborhoods to turn down the killing. Sectarian violence is still bad, but down considerably since January.
Of course Zawahiri wants Bush to believe that the "central front" of the so-called war on terror is in Iraq. He has a strong preference for the 150,000 American soldiers and 170,000 or so private contractors to be there and not on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
Please do not project Dem talking points onto Zawahiri. He's quite capable of talking for himself. You should try listening to him. Zawahiri doesn't care about Waziristan. It's a useful hideout, that's all. It's the back of nowhere.
But Baghdad is the heart of the Arab world, the capital of the caliphate when it really existed. Zawahiri wants it to be the capital of the caliphate again. That's why al Qaeda has proclaimed Iraq the main front in jihad, not once, but many times. That's why al Qaeda has proclaimed a new caliphate in Iraq, with Baquba as its latest capital. That's why it's important that they have just been run out of Baquba, in the under-reported American capaign of Arrowhead Ripper.
Unlike you, Zawahiri understands what war is. He has a strong preference for victory, which he will claim loudly and credibly the minute the US withdraws, whatever the circumstances on the ground in Iraq. That is why the US must be seen to defeat al Qaeda in Iraq. This is happening as more and more Iraqis turn against them. The outcome is uncertain - unless we opt for defeat by cutting and running. |
