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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: Neil_L who wrote (646)10/6/1997 7:56:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy   of 23519
 
I don't know at what prices you are in these positions. I would assume that the 30's were purchased early and are deep in the money. The 40's may be more recent.

Today VVUS up 1 1/16 to $40 9/16

Option...OCT 30-(VVQJF).....OCT 40-(VVQJH)
Net......+1 5/8.............+ 13/16
Ask......$11 1/8............$3

It would appear that the Oct 30's are basically trading with the underlying stock. There is very little time premium.

Oct 30
Intrinsic Value-IV: (40 9/16-30=$10 9/16)
Time Value-TV: (11 2/16 -10 9/16=9/16)

on the other hand you can see\do the math that the
Oct 40 has IV of 9/16 and TV of $2 7/16

Based on this I would be inclined to get out of the October 40's first. Between now and next Friday $2 7/16 in value will be lost. On the other hand only 50 cents will be lost on the Oct 30's. Rest assured that with expiration being rather close the MM's are going to be taking back that time premium big time. If people hold the Oct 40's they need VVUS to keep moving up just to stay even at $3.

As an example, if VVUS goes up to $43 by next friday then
Oct $40 is still worth $3 (a gain of 0) but
Oct $30 goes up $1 7/8 to $13 (a gain of somewhat more than 15%) from current levels.

So based on how much you paid for the options and where you expect VVUS to end up you can kind of use this as a template to role play what might be best for your individual situation.
Also, visit cboe.com you have to look around but I think they have an on line options calculator that you can play with to do what if scenarios. There are also sites that have similar things as well.

Best of luck to us all.
Keep your eyes sharp and your powder dry!


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