So . . . assuming that 2nd generation compound 7803 is also a write-off, given the similar MOA, and the apparent death of pradefovir, we are left with . . . 7811 for hyperlipidemia, and 7133 for liver cancer (as well as the little Merck and Idenix Hep C collaborations, which are even earlier). They are "actively" looking for partners for the latter, but have not initiated the "proof of concept" study yet. So news on that is a ways out (doubt they'd try to partner before proof of concept was done). For the former, they just started P1b. They could get some proof of concept from this, but I don't know that they'd fish for partners based on it. Their mindset may have changed, given this failure.
They had $71 million in cash as of last q. Except for start of next 7133 trial, I don't foresee much news for the next several months. Except Daichii walking, while Metabasis continues to throw money at the program, looking for a silver lining.
So what if the baseline glucose & HbA1c levels were low (did they tell us before that they were looking at a different patient population here)? Metformin still outperformed. Yet, "Dr. Paul Laikind, president and chief executive officer stated, "We are certainly disappointed with the CS-917 results, but we are hopeful that further review of the data will give us insight that will allow the continued development of this potentially important new approach for treating type 2 diabetes." This statement makes it pretty likely they'll find some excuse to throw more money at it. Keep the burn rate up, keep giving themselves bonuses, and eventually do a financing at dirt cheap prices. Excuse my cynicism. It is possible they might actually settle for an earlier stage deal for one of the two most advanced drugs not in the gluconeogenesis inhibitor class, instead of wasting money on the latter and diluting shareholders. But I'm not waiting to find out.
Will likely sell on any dead cat bounce.
Tuck |
