No the bearish count imo does not line up exactly with Kern's. I do not think Kern is an EW'er of repute.
The bearish count, which I am on, is the Prechter count. W/r to the chart below, we had a 3 top in '79/'80. Following that we had a 5 wave A down, an a for an 'a', an abc for a 'b' (there is no other way to label that imo), and now possibly a 'c' up to complete the B of 4. The B thus is a '3' wave affair as it must be. Following a B of 4 top we need a complete 5 waver down, which would be a large C wave. Then we would have a complete ABC to complete a '4'. Gold need not go to a new low per this approach, but would probably hit 400 or a bit less, if this comes to pass.
I do not know for sure if Prechter is still on this count, but have every reason to believe he is.
I do presently suscribe to the more classical Ewave theory that an ending pattern of a 5 wave pattern must occur here, in some form.
There is a variant by another well known Ewaver that I know of. His variant is that the '4' will run (yes this other person has POG in a 4 also), and exceed the top of the '3' before retreating back a bit, but only a bit. The ending wave would still be a 5 waver of sorts. This is also a classical EW correction possibility. I will also state this other Ewaver says time is running out for the running variant. Gold has to break out within a week or maybe two, or it is probably curtains.
My chart read is much the same. Gold is pinned within a very tight area, of extreme important. If it goes up much further, it goes quite a ways. If it goes down much, it likely goes a long ways. Very tight here.
The short term GLD pattern per the Prechter approach is below. Although it has not been confirmed, this method would likely have POG in the early stages of a 3rd wave of C of 4 down.
I previously showed a complete Nem count, to nearly this date. There is no change there. I have never seen Nem and the HUI NOT form coincident major pivots. Here is the ST HUI count I have. This count would have the HUI nearing a B of [A] of 2 top, readying for a C of [A] of 2 down. C waves down in the HUI are not pleasant, for longs. It is thus behind NEM but on the same overall wave (presently).
A longer term chart of the GOX is here. Interpret for yerself. My interpretation is more bearish than boolish. This is the weekly. No mo here. Will it come? I dunno, but the pm indices live on mo, and higher gold prices.
Re the dollar, no I do not prefer to look at trade weighted indices. Just the regular indice. From an EW perspective the dollar is likely very near an ending pattern. An abc or a 5 waver, that started near the end of '05. The last wave down, a 5 waver starting in last qtr of '06, is a 'c' or a vth wave.
Not pushing anything to anyone here. Just what I see EW'wise. Just as likely wrong as right, but we are close to some major shift here. The air is getting tight in gold land. A BO or BD soon me thinks.
Decision Point monthly PMO has crossed over down on POG and the XAU.
I did look through all the HUI components the other day. Many more looked toppier than otherwise to me.
OTOH I will push another concept that I wished I had followed more or came across sooner. Related to a remark made the other day, about lack of synchronization. It is just lacking. With that in mind I am following several gold stocks that do not look toppy, but do not quite yet look like they are at lows. Very close however. Maybe some of yesterdays dogs. A couple look very explosive.
Hence in hindsight I wished I would have paid more attention to stocks on a more individual basis. At some point they will all come into synchronization. But it does not seem we are there yet. Right now I think it happens after 2010 and maybe even a bit beyond that. When it starts I think it will last for quite a number of years. Be rather unbelieveable more than likely.
And I am no longer short anything. Stopped out of my QID short last week. Should have done so earlier. USPIX looks like it is in a death dive. On a longer term chart it looks like it has broke down rather completely. It might well be in an ending pattern, but that ending pattern could take it to very low single digits (imo).
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