>>So something about the trial's power just now dawned on Leerink?<<
3 months ago. Not sure to what extent Mitch Steiner's soliloquy and Q&A have changed Leerink's (Liang's) mind, but they haven't seen fit to upgrade after that CC PGS posted (thanks, PGS!). Maybe because it would look stupid and flip-floppy to do that so soon after having downgraded. Sure looks as though Dr. Steiner reviewed the fracture studies more thoroughly than Liang.
I guess that in the UBS presentation, on which I had taken notes, the reference to having data in late '07 meant having the raw data, as opposed to having it cleaned up for public consumption. Looking at this latest CC transcript, it looks as though Cowen's Schmidt was unclear on that, too. So early '08 for the PR on the fracture prevention trial, and maybe before that for the PIN trial.
I'm comfortable enough with the situation to look for an entry and hold for a few months, anyhow. Maybe hold and buy protective puts. Very little open interest or implied volatility in the options, but short interest is pretty high and trending up:
finance.yahoo.com
Cheers, Tuck |
