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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?
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To: Glass House who wrote (2070)10/6/1997 10:44:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken   of 3431
 
It's impossible to say. GEMS took a big hit when MOT preannounced earnings that would be below analyst's expectations. Glenayre's CEO is on record stating that unless the slowdown in the paging market(in particular in China) is a long term slowdown then it presents no problem for earnings at the company. Unfortunately we can't know for sure if that is a long term problem. If it is a long term problem then the slowdown will obviously result in lowered need for infrastructure. One can't be overconfident about this quarter's earnings. There have been no large contract announcements. In fact there have been no company announcements since Sept 10th. So does this mean that GEMS will miss the expected earnings of 24 cents when earnings are announced on 10/27? Let me say that there also has been no preannouncement from GEMS that we would have an earnings downfall. So take a look at the disclaimer from MOT today in their earnings announcement. It's kind of unusual because of how it dwells on the unknowns in the future including the slowdown in China. Unsual because it includes both historical and forward looking statements. In fact if I read their report right they are saying they can make more money with less revenue. So can GEMS. That is why they are trying to focus their business plan and are selling Western Multiplex. Here's that statement from the MOT see if you don't agree we me...There is no way to really apply this to the Glenayre's earnings. Except to say if they miss it may already be somewhat factored in:

The statements in ''Review and Outlook'' and about the review of our businesses and possible charges resulting therefrom, the commercial availability of new products, the expanded development of the PowerPC(TM) architecture, the continuation of weakness in the market for paging products in China, exploration of strategic options with regard to the analog modem business, deployment and commercialization of IRIDIUM(R) products and services, the Iridium LLC financing negotiations, expenses relating to Iridium LLC and the commercialization of the flat panel display business, refocusing resources in connection with the exit from the MacOS(R)-compatible computer systems business and any other statements that are not
historical facts are forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties.
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