Changes in COT may cause some reaction, but they
don't seem to determine the LT trend, other things do that.
I don't see any difference with gold COT there. You may be
right, I don't know, although I would think your prediction
would materialize if the Fed actually did something instead
of just yapping about fighting inflation, like raising rates.
Ditto Yen, the weakness is related to them not raising rates
in July. However, retail sales came very strong in Japan,
and they should raise again soon.
In particular, why is the pound so
strong? Brits have second largest trade deficit after
the US. The only thing I can think of is London being
European financial center, packaging all the Euro derivatives.
Well, rates surely matter too, higher than US, higher than
Euro. I think of gold as a carry trade currency too, since
gold lease rates are close to zero.
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