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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology (MTSN)

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To: Shankar Kumar who wrote (12)	8/22/1996 8:42:00 PM
From: davesd	of 28

Shankar, in recent conversations with the company, they speculate that this slowdown is going to last till Q3 1997. For all, DRAM is a big part of this semi-tool turnaround equation, and until it turns around the tool companies are not going ot move much higher. The DRAM prices are still falling, both the 4M (below $2) and 16M (below $9). FABs are selling below cost at this point and there still seems to be more capacity coming on line due to past commitments. So until the DRAM segment shapes up, it looks like we are in for a long winter. The spending on cap equipment for 4 or 16M DRAM is falling fast, any new investments will be in the 64M area and the FABs are putting together the plans of 64M manufacturing. That will be the driving force behind new tool purchases. How fast that will happen depends on demand. Unfortunately, I don't see this or any other semi tool company moving much in the short term....long term, for companies that have money to invest in R&D and survive this downturn, they will more than double and triple. Now, if only someone could tell us when this downturn will be over with! dave

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