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Biotech / Medical : biotech binary events

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From: Robohogs	7/22/2007 11:50:10 PM
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Of stuff I am tracking , I see several events in near-term with FDA triggers: 1. VVUS August PDUFA for drug sold - huge payment if made (VVUS down $2-3 if no) 2. IDEV Aug PDUFA 3. GPCB/SPPI July Committee 4. GPCB/SPPI PDUFA 5. POZN Aug 1 PDUFA VVUS may be setting up as interesting put buy - market pricing in approval and milestone payment almost fully it appears to me. IDEV seems to have pulled back from full certainty so looks like some upside with approval/downside if approvable given they need the milestone and need money. SPPI downside to me should not go below $4 given modest (but some) pipeline and $2 cash - but IDIX did overshoot where I thought it would go and similar situations so probably see $3.50. Should not go below $5 (but will) on only committee move given final move still to come. POZN vols in options are gigantic. Is approval priced in? Jon

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