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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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To: RonMerks who wrote (5650)7/25/2007 10:07:54 AM
From: nspolar  Read Replies (1) of 50302
 
Is it the carry trade unwinding, or a deflationary scare that is whistling in the wind?

I tend to think it is the latter.

LT what we need to really set up POG is a good retrenchment, good enough to persuade the CB's to back off, and maybe even stimulate.

Gary Shilling is no dummy. He is still talking deflation, and LT rates bottoming in oh say the 3.5 % range, a few more years down the road. I don't think LT rates have bottomed either, or changed trend. Likewise it is a bit hard to see how falling LT rates are positive for POG.

It is of value to go back and look at what the dollar and LT rates did during the 70's, vis a vis the last POG blow-off.
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