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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (31285)10/7/1997 12:50:00 AM
From: Cogito   of 58324
 
Ken -

I think you're definitely on the low side with that earnings estimate.

I believe that your conclusion is affected by a couple of assumptions you're making which just aren't true.

For one thing, I don't think there's been much evidence that Iomega has had trouble supplying the OEMs, who keep putting the Zip into new SKUs. If they couldn't get a reliable supply of drives, why would they put them into more models? This quarter's production constraints have been with the SCSI drives, which do not make up the bulk of Zip sales anyway.

For another, your figures about the number of Zip drives sold this year were off by about a million. In a post a couple of days ago, you ran some numbers based on an assumption of 2 million Zips sold so far in 1997. I seem to remember that the 5 mil announcement came during the Q4 conference call. The wording, to the best of my recollection was "As of December, more than 5 million Zip drives have been sold."

Since we had the announcement of 8 million around a month ago, that would seem to indicate 3 million drives for 1997.

I realize that this doesn't dramatically affect your conclusion that most computers sold still don't come with Zip drives.

I'd be very surprised by revenue numbers below 400 million, myself.

- Allen
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