Who was Santoli talking about in Barron's?
'Those were consensus calls among the standard sell-side and long-only investment pros at the start of the year -- not, mind you, among the many wised-up, blog-scraping, doom-inviting macro bears out there who can tell you how many homeowners defaulted on their mortgages in DeKalb County, Ga. last week, but not why the Dow hasn't collapsed.'
oldprof.typepad.com
Regardless the comments section on this guy's personal blog are an interesting read on the confusion..
'The problem with expecting the retail investor to return in much of a way is two fold. First, their most recent wrong-way bet was in the residential real estate market. The liquidity of that disaster is limited and many are trapped. As bad as watching CSCO go from $80 to $15 was, most were not leveraged significantly. This is not the case with all the wannabe Donald Trumps. Not only are they sitting on losses but many are likely in a total wipe out situation. The capitulation phase of the stock bear market didn't occur until July 2002-March 2003. We are still very early in the housing debacle, so I would guess that the return of the retail investor will be very modest.'
'I'm looking forward to this next article. (you might as well just put my name in as the guy you're talking about.) BTW, most of those bear bloggers will say its system liquidity that's propping up the DOW, all about to come to an end thanks to the CDO massacre of ought seven, the day the music died for Private Equity LBOs. Now, I take a contrarian view to the consensus view of impending financial armageddon (that's a fun blog, btw, sheesh) but its not an easy place to be with the market whipsaws.' |
