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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (237993)7/26/2007 5:58:06 PM
From: Sam  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
That's the news part. So this a strong point of evidence for what the US Army has been saying for months, that AQ and AQI are linked at the leadership level.

Personally, I don't doubt that there was some sort of interaction between Zarqawi and the leadership in Pakistan/Afghanistan. If only through their public statements, though I am even willing to believe that there were courier messages between them as well. And I am willing to believe that there has been some sort of interaction between whoever is in charge of Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan.

However, that doesn't mean that the implication of what Bush said earlier in the week was correct. It simply isn't the case that the group in Iraq poses the same threat as the group in Afghanistan/Pakistan, or that the group in Iraq is responsible for most of the violence in Iraq, or that the people we are fighting and that are killing Americans are primarily the group in Iraq that takes orders from Afghanistan/Pakistan. Nor is it the case that the group that takes orders from Afghanistan/Pakistan is very large or that it will survive on its own after the US pulls out. They will be decimated by both other Sunnis and by Shiites. The successes in Anbar are not the result of the surge, the successes predate the surge, the reports of the switch began, if I recall correctly, sometime last fall--this success is the result of the non-fundamentalist Sunnis getting fed up with fundamentalist crap and deciding that they simply had to get rid of the them. And assuming that it continues--and I believe that it will due to the basic nature of most Iraqi Sunni society--the Sunni fundamentalists don't stand any chance of surviving inside Iraq other perhaps than a fringe group that is seen as lunatic by most Iraqis.

The issue of whether or not the leadership of Al Qaeda in Iraq has any interaction with the leadership of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan is therefore irrelevant.
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