SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (237403)7/27/2007 12:10:12 PM
From: colin1497Read Replies (3) of 275872
 


OK, the investment in Intel or AMD is predicated on one single foundation with two facets.

1) The investment in AMD is a bet on duopoly, and AMD achieving a proportionate % of total (Intel + AMD) market cap. That prospect makes for AMD share price in the 100's and higher.

2) The bet on INTC is that Intel is so far ahead of AMD in process and execution and systematization of their product development activity, that it's lead is permanent (3 years +). And that the stock price has been suppressed because of fear of #1 above. Once it is clear that AMD is just a hopeless also-ran, INTC's price will go up to $30's.

I'm betting on #2.


There is a third path:

1A) Both are doomed. A duopoly will develop, either within the current structure or through AMD being acquired by a company that is used to doing business with low margins (latest Samsung rumor would be a perfect example, they are in very low margin businesses that are not unrelated to the AMD/INTC business). This will result in a level of future profitability that will assure a stagnation of decline in both stock prices.

I have previously believed 1 was a likely outcome and that AMD's progress would wound INTC (this has certainly occurred) but that INTC would be sane enough not to cut off its nose to spite its face. Since INTC has decided that complete dominance is only way it knows how to do business, and the nose appears to be dangling, I believe that 1A is more and more likely. They will bury AMD, but they will never be what people betting on #2 dream that they can be.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News