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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: quehubo who wrote (87875)7/29/2007 9:05:21 AM
From: Dennis Roth  Read Replies (2) of 206209
 
I did quick talley of new North American regas capacity coming on line in CY 2008



Freeport LNG  1.5 Bcf/d in Q1
Costa Azul    1.0 Bcf/d in Q2  ( Baja )
Cameron LNG   1.5 Bcf/d in Q4 
Canaport LNG  1.0 Bcf/d in Q4  ( Canada )
Cove Point    0.8 Bcf/d in Q4  ( increase over existing sendout capacity )
Sabine Pass   2.6 Bcf/d 
              ---------------

Total         8.4 Bcf/d

So Lehman must be looking at the same thing I am.

Assume a 40% utilization rate 6 months after completion and you have an additional 3.36 Bcf/d in 2009 with up to 5 Bcf/d available for supply surges. Still more regas capacity will be coming on line in 2009 and 2010. They won't be able to use a lack of LNG regas facilities as an excuse anymore. Procuring the upstream supply of LNG is another matter.

This is the first summer that the LNG supply has materially effected N.A. prices. We will have to take LNG imports into consideration from now on. This considerably complicates the NG supply guessing game. In the past you could count up population weighted HDD's and CDD's, look at CPC heat forecasts and get a good feel for where the market was going. No longer.

Now we have to keep track of European weather and Japanese demand as our market is no longer isolated.

This summer's LNG surge was due in part to the fact that the winter of 2006/2007 was unusually warm in Europe and left their inventories high. LNG was diverted here seeking the higher price. The European winter of 2005/2006 was colder than normal causing 2006 LNG imports to trend below 2003's rate and setting off panicky Conferences to Examine Why. See:
Message 22560036

From now on we may have to pay as much attention to this Outlook wxmaps.org as this one wxmaps.org and events in Japan.
I don't know where to look for the equivalent of the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day Outlooks for Europe although one might make do with the NCEP (NMC) Ensemble European Forecast.
cdc.noaa.gov

Ahh, for the good old days, when all you needed was a good american weather forecast.

====
Post Script. BTW, the CPC 8-14 day Outlook finally has Texas in the heatwave. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
'though the 8-14 day outlook has lost a lot of creditability this month.

Month to date July has been cool in Texas and much of the East
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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