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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 278.28

+0.1%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: hotlinktuna who wrote (162594)	7/29/2007 10:52:07 AM
From: JHalperin	Read Replies (1) of 208838

Say Tuna: am I missing something or can you add anything to my take on CPHI: Positive: Fast growing Profitable Excellent sector in growing Chinese economy Dirt cheap valuation (forward PE less than 5) Diverse revenue mix - no one product is more than 15% Management credibility - unlike many many other micro's, no "bombshells" from company since I've been watching for past two years. They seem to have a track record of meeting their guidance. Negative: Micro bullettin board stock Neg. cash flow due to HUGE receivables - mgmt says they turn cash flow positive current qtr. I think this issue alone is depressing the pps - it's a real biggy as they had to dilute by about 7% earlier this year for working capital. Chinese company? I used to think the market valued Chinese companies at a discount to US issues - I'm not so sure of this anymore? Anyway, I averaged down at 1.52. This past Friday was in one word "ouch." My crystal ball says no pps action until early next year when seasonal earnings rampup. Then again if mgmt guides cash flow positive on next earnings report that could ramp the pps. Thanx and let's hope for a market bounce which I think is very likely as the overall economic data is good. As long as one is clear of the US financials, retail and homebuilders, it's just not sustained crash time. Heck, the IMF just increased forward world growth estimates to 5.5% and China is moving along at 11%. I'm mostly invested in precious and basic materials and Chinese stocks (cphi, hrbn, snwn, sndh). Thanx, Joel H

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