"Leave the gun...take the canolies"
A quote from Clemenza in the movie the Godfather,
or a recent quote from Hank Paulson to the President's
working group on financial markets?
Mea culpa, mea culpa...on no smackdown.
My "hole in the water in which I throw money" decided
to blow an engine during a beautiful sunset cruise along the
southern shore of Lake Michigan last night.
I'll get some time later this week to drop one of those
ole-fashioned 15 page rambles on you all... but, for now
- just a quick thought or two.
Back on June 8th I spoke about the reason for the roll-over
in gold stocks and the coming unwind of the yen-carry trade
in July-August.
Message 23608554
And as expected, we are seeing a yen-carry unwind and it's
taking gold & gold stocks down with it once again.
In that post I spoke about the mispricing of risk, and the
record levels of margin interest and leverage in the market
...and in gold & gold stocks.
In May 2006, the US and the Japanese took interventionist
action to cap commodity speculation and speculators were
brutalized. The correction in PM's was ugly, painful and
prolonged.
It's been 15 months and neither gold, silver, or the stocks
have been able to break out of the trading range we defined
via "the chart."
That chart is not born out of mystical abilities of
prognostication and it's not even born out of TA.
No Nostradamus here...but, thanks for the thoughts
anyway Ron.
Yes, you heard me right... that chart had absolutely nothing
to do with the predictive ability of traditional charting.
It had to do with competitive intelligence, research and
an outside the box interpretation of where the PM market
was going...and why.
That "why" is what I'll expand upon later this week.
And I'll share some "competitive intelligence" garnered
from the same folks who led to the creation of "the chart"
and that call on the May 2006 collapse of PM's.
And then you'll understand my reference to:
"Leave the gun...take the canolies."
...because those words could very easily have come
from Hank Paulsons lips.
I'll share a take on gold and the dollar that you
absolutely have not...and will not -- hear anywhere else.
By now, you might be tired of all the breathless, hystrionic
calls for $2000 gold and new highs every time gold rallies,
or the US dollar enters the bottom of it's trading range.
Whether "this call" plays out like the call from May 2006 and
"The Chart"...only time will tell.
Paulson's about to play a hand that no one is expecting.
And I mean no one.
Actually, it's incredibly brilliant.
It's perhaps the best solution - given the circumstances.
And it will catch virtually 99% of gold bugs - off guard.
..guaranteed.
Mo later... and later, means later....maybe even next
weekend. No rush... it will be worth the wait.
SOTB
And remember...
”Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
-- Napoleon Bonaparte` |
