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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (27539)	8/1/2007 5:10:17 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (5) of 78673

I've taken just a very few shares of Freddie Mac (FRE) today. I'll go on this thesis: The mortgage market is going to get tougher for borrowers because many non-bank lenders of sub-prime/alt A are going out-of-business or already are. The bank lenders are now more cautious. That suggests there will more demand for FRE as an insurance backup. While FRE does have sub-prime loans, I'm under the impression their lending standards have been more strict than the anybody-qualifies/no checking- income loans made by those firms that are now in trouble. I suspect there's not much risk of FRE going bk or defaulting. The business and stock have fluctuated over the years. I'm expecting FRE business will improve as it steps into the void left by the departing companies, and that the stock, now about $56, will again hit $65-70 in the next twelve months. (The stock has touched $65 or greater at some point in each of the past nine years.) There's a 3.5% dividend yield now, and the dividend seems to get raised every year. All jmo. I have been wrong many, many times -- especially in the last few weeks as my stocks have fallen. So, just a few share buy for me now. I'll add more if/as stock drops on no adverse news. finance.yahoo.com

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