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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Road Walker who wrote (345443)8/3/2007 1:21:49 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1575725
 
Still down from 35 on June 4th. What's your take, is the housing debt/liquidity thing a catalyst for a now-October crash?

If there is going to be a crash, I think it will be sooner than October. At some point in the next three months, I expect the feds to ease the fed rate. Inflation is in check and employment growth is slowing.........unemployment bumped up to 4.6% last month so they have to be feeling some concern about the overall economy.

However, so far, the subprime/housing mess is not as bad as I expected. I thought the housing markets in FLA [esp Miami], LA, SFO and Vegas would be as bad as the Detroit market which is suffering from regional specific pains as well as the housing downturn. Now the Miami market may crash next year when a ton of condos hit but I think the rest of the major FLA markets are stabilizing. It seems that markets in TX and the PNW have offset some of the pain.

We are starting to see subprime lenders go under. I am expecting that most will be gone by the end of the year. I don't think any major banks will go under which is a big plus. And I expect at least one homebuilder to go under. I also expect that many people who bought homes in 2006 particularly subprime properties will probably walk. That means we will have a housing inventory hangover well into 2009. None of this is pretty but he could be much worse.

What's your thoughts?
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