Hardware estimate is being done right now, it is based on replacement by larger computers. It is the individual markets of AMD(HP), Intel(Dell), IBM, and Fujitsu or Hitachi, etc. The market share of Sunw depends on their computer design using different cpus, to compete in operating system monopoly of segregated markets. To get more competitive, Sunw has to do SOA with established service companies and their own computers and its service business. Sunw has to cover their rear with Linux(no revenue) taking away Sunw business, but compete for bigger business using 32 cpu mainframes yet to be designed.
Wang has $4 billion revenue in service but sells Dell computers. If Sun acquires Wang, Dell may lose some of their billions of computer business. HP has DEC business with AMD cpu in Europe($6 billion). Fujitsu has $40 billion mainframe business, IBM has $90 billion mainframe business. So, it depends on Sunw's market positions, how much they will lose to Linux business, but also how much Sunw will be able to gain with 32 cpu computers?
It is interesting to know, IBM(PC) did the service for ebay before Sunw took over? With some more experience and good fortune, Sunw may do better next year, by a few billions? The billions does not grow on trees, it has to come from existing markets. So market studies first, then the business plan can come? |
