Having gotten doubly hammered by the recent market downdraft and the exquisitely (mis)timed preannouncement, I have given a lot of thought to my overexposure in Sonus. It is really the only stock position I presently have which is worth anything as I think this market has teeth and have cashed out for all practical purposes.
I have even foolishly sold a 1/6 share of the Sonus position, which I plan to replenish. Thankfully, the sale was at a very nice profit.
I am quite optimistic and it boils down to this:
Senate has the s/p pegged at 8.5. I am convinced that Chandler would have continued to buy even if the earnings preannouncement had not blind sided the share price.
And while I am a great believer in DIY research, and never have spoken to a broker (never will), I know that Chandler's resources are infinitely better than ours. The research undertaken prior to plunking down hundreds of millions of dollars must have been more than substantial. Because Chandler is investing on such a massive scale, I believe that the research must have cost several million dollars.
Lots of analogies to Gregg Powers hiring a patent law firm to check out Q's IPR before he made his multi-million bet. And we all know how that turned out.
It is a rare thing for me to rely too much on others. This time, however, I think actions (and a huge chunk of cash) speak louder than anything I might have to say or think. When a billionaire puts a substantial chunk of his fortune on the line on a single exposure, I am all ears.
I also don't think that ultimately it will make any difference if Chandler takes the company private or if he simply gets a seat on the board and maintains a LTBH position. Three scenarios, all profitable to the small fry like us, are possible, IMO:
1.- He takes SONS private. We get paid a smallish premium but still do well.
2. He sits on his investment like any LTBH investor. This is the least likely outcome but one which I think is best for the minnows.
3. Sonus merges with another co. A premium gets paid, and we still do well.
What's there to worry about?
I am happy to ride Chandler's coattails just as I would have been happy to ride Powers's if I had known of him back then. |
