Yes, I suspect at least 50% from the top is more like it,
given all the LTCM stuff we know has been going on.
What we see now is
seismic activity, 300-point moves up and down, which is a
precursor to a very large move down. Despite the many cries
"the bottom is in", etc., I don't think clustered 300-point
moves up and down is a good thing. I agree with him,
the probability of a crash, while low overall, is much higher
now than ever. As I posted on this thread before, there are
ways to see it. It's volativity, self-similar behavior
of the fluctuations, the power-law distribution,
expanding from 5-min moves, to 60-min chart, then
to dailies, weeklies, and monthlies. While we remain lower
than maxpain for August, I don't want to play the sharp rise
at this time. |
