Re: If they can sell 18-20 million K8s at $60 apiece and a million Barcelonas at $300 apiece in Q4, they should comfortably return to cash flow neutrality by the end of Q4
With desktop ASPs at $49 in Q2, and drastic price cuts starting in early Q3, what makes you think ASPs on the desktop will go up to $60?
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More mobile mix, maybe, but mobile ASPs were $63 in Q2, and they certainly aren't going up, with lack of competitive products. Based on AMD's average ASP of $62 (which includes the server ASP of $384), it's clear that desktop parts still make up the vast majority of sales.
Also, with 20M in desktop volumes, AMD would be at roughly a third of the market. I don't see these kinds of market share gains within the next couple of quarters. Their products simply aren't competitive, and Intel already has them cornered in pricing.
In terms of maintaining server ASPs at $300, this seems easily doable, but I don't see 1M in sales. Seems too high for the kind of ramp that AMD is guiding (which is a function of customer demand, as well as manufacturability and yields). Not many customers are going to upgrade from high frequency dual cores to 2.0GHz quad cores. There's just not a large nor a consistent improvement in performance with that. AMD can encourage the transition with lower prices, but that would defeat the ASP. And in terms of the die size, I doubt you'll see quarterly sales in the million range until well into next year. |
