Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.87

-0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: pirasa2 who wrote (238295)	8/7/2007 2:25:52 PM
From: graphicsguru	Read Replies (1) of 275872

I don't doubt that AMD has the manufacturing capability to build a million Barcelonas. They just couldn't sell them. See wbmw's post. I think he's in the right ballpark. That implies a brief peak of around 800K opterons per Q, back down to about 400K/Q right now. Note that the 800K number was achieved when AMD had a significantly better product than Intel for most purposes. With Barcelona launching at 2Ghz, against 3Ghz Clovertown, that's certainly not true this time around. More to the point, the single thread performance of 2 Ghz Barcelona will be significantly worse than 3Ghz Opteron for almost all purposes, so it won't even be a slam-dunk upgrade for existing Opteron users. Not all server apps are about throughput. Latency is important for many purposes. At 3Ghz, Barcelona would be a pretty interesting product. At 2Ghz, it's a niche product. Until the clock speed gets competitive with Intel, I expect Barcelona volume to stay under 100K/Q. AMD will win a few big HPC contracts, but most people will wait until the clock speed gets a whole lot better. And by the time the clock speed gets more reasonable, Barcelona will be competing with Penryn at faster clocks, better IPC and larger cache. As far as Phenom goes, I'm really not at all sure why many desktop users would prefer it to a higher clocked A64 x2. Certainly not for a premium price until its single-thread performance beats the x2. And remember how aggressive Intel's desktop pricing already is. Phenom isn't going to do any volume unless it's priced very low. I think AMD will make more revenue building multiple x2's in the short run.

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