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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 215.04+0.1%Dec 24 9:30 AM EST
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To: pirasa2 who wrote (238295)8/7/2007 3:16:07 PM
From: wbmwRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Re: From a production stand point, 1 million finished products in Q4 is doable from 200-250 300 mm wafer starts per week during the 13 weeks of Q3, and that's afer assuming horrible yields.

Your math needs correction. Assuming AMD's explicitly stated yields of 0.5/cm2, they can only get 60 working Barcelona die per 300mm wafer. That would therefore require more than 1200 wafer starts each week to ramp to 1M.

Besides which, I already showed that AMD's current share of the server market is around 400k units (in Q2). If they doubled their market share (which they won't with 2GHz Barcelona), they still won't get to 1M units.

Re: The global server market is 15+ million units

No, it's less than half that. I found the total market for servers is about 2-3M servers *per year* in a post I made for Petz. We multiplied out the number of likely processors, and then divided by 4 quarters. You can probably search for this post better than I can with my limited account privileges.

Re: Surely at its height in 2006 AMD achieved better than 25% unit share in a quarter

They did, but their most recent quarter of share amounted to 12.8% of the market. Barcelona won't win this back in 2007.
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