Okay, things going nicely with QQQQ. I sold part of the long into the rally just about at the HOD, went short, then covered the short at a profit and bought back the long a percent or so cheaper at the close. So that worked out very well, thanks to the fairly predictable post-FOMC two-step.
I see an upper target of about $49.90 in QQQQ. By the time QQQQ gets up to that level (probably about a week or so from now), the BBs should have tightened down, and the upper BB rail should be at about that same level. If so, then that will represent resistance.
I anticipate that QQQQ will then spend the next few months correcting, then resume the uptrend around mid-October or so.
Note what happens with the spikes in daily volatility (lowest part of the chart). This is the plot of the 5 sma/13 sma crossover of volatility, which is NOT the same as the VIX, VXN, or QQV. The volatility as I use it is a direct calculation from the range of price in a session divided by the average price in the session, expressed as a percentage. The VIX, VXN, and QQV are derivatives of option contract pricing.
In any case, I think you can see that when the 5 sma of the daily volatility spikes above 2% after a downtrend, then that predicts reversal and significant rally thereafter.
......all IMHO, of course.
T
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