There isn't anything I "doesn't" get.
The Brisbane/Windsor for the most part is already a Sempron. It had to happen and it has happened. Wish it had happened back in Q4 2006. They are getting around 50 dollars for desktop CPUs, how much worse can that get?
AMD can thrive in a market structure whereby it can move its low end in volume AND has some meaningful presence in high-end gaming and server. Intel has been unable to effectively mess with AMD's low end for several years now. As long as AMD doesn't make pricing blunders, as it did in Q1 2007, it should easily peddle a low-end range of 2.1 - 3 GHz Brisbanes in large volume in 2008. They will definitely be able to produce them in volume, and the marginal cost is around 25 bucks per CPU.
At $75 ASP, for instance, Intel would go bankrupt even if it had %90 of the market, yet AMD would be profitable with just 25% of the market. And all it takes for AMD to move up to $75 ASP is having 1-1.5 million high-end parts in the mix.
@Pirasa - K10 intro
It seems like you doesn't get the big overall picture, which
we discussed here a few times. Barcelona will look good in
Servers, mostly in MP systems, no question, but ask yourself
what AMD could command for the "old" lines at this time and
this will be still the wast majority of sales in the first
1-2 quarters at least. Keep further in mind, that Intel puts
new CPU and Chipset modells in place -> you could estimate,
what prices you could get for a 2G part, you could be sure not
that much.
In the desktop area you are hopefully well aware of the
ongoing ASP crunch - looks brutal for AMD. Look further to
Intels Q6600 which is NOW!!! at 266$. Go ahead in time, when
AMD launches Desktop parts (Q1-08) and look what Intel will
be able to do at this point. A Q6600 will be a 180$ part -
very likely and I'm not speaking about the new Penryn parts,
which have even higher IPCs. A 2,6G K10 QC Desktop part will
be a 160$ CPU in Q1-2008, not more and try to guess, what
AMD could get for old DC parts, not alone K10 DC. And it
should be clear, that Brisbane will be by far the major
volume driver in 2008. Brisbane = Sempron at this point.
BUGGI |
