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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238414)8/8/2007 5:35:58 PM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Dear Tench:

I agree with you on some things. The first stepping will not get to 1 million KGD in Q4. The 3GHz Phenom stepping would be on a very fast ramp though. They have the capacity to spare and the initial demand will be very high especially given the HPC and workstation markets. The desktop market will take the faster DCs and the slower QCs as the bang for buck is higher with those (the smart ones will take the faster DCs and the less informed ones and transcoders, the slower QCs). The 1 million CPUs will wait for Q1 which will sell out even with the normal seasonal downturn.

There would be plenty of incentive to sell most of the remaining 90nm CPUs and gobs of the 65nm K8 based ones. Q4 is also the time that inventories generally get eaten up. So Q4 can sell more than they can produce in a quarter. 25% QoQ gain over Q3 is not that unusual. They could have done it in Q4/06,if they had the correct kind of inventory. So even a 40% to 50% YoY gain is also not that unusual either. We will have a better idea of what Q4 has in store by how Q3 goes. If Q3's laptop market share percentages rise a lot, 30% overall rise to Q4 over Q3 units is doable.

Pete
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