I did not predict 24 million K8s PLUS 1 million Barcs. I presented alternative scenarios both of which would lead to at least cash flow neutrality for AMD in Q4 07.
My initial post = 20 milion k8 * 60 ASP + 300 * 1 million from Barc + not a disastrous ATI side = cash flow neutrality for AMD in Q4 07.
You and a few others = 1 million server CPUs in a quarter is nuts.
Me = Barc core means server plus Phenom. One full Q4, overall market expected to be very good, pent-up demand for brand new architecture, lots of hungry, compatible existing motherboards. It is not as implausible as you suggest.
Me = but if you insist on a number less than $300 million for Barc, the deficiency could also be made up by selling more K8s. How about 23-24 million K8s and just $100 million in Barc revenue? That also lets AMD breakeven, forgetting any upside potential from ATI for the moment.
The objectors = 23 million in a quarter is impossible. The market is smaller than you think (70 - 80 million in Q4 07) in Q4.
Me= The market was around 70 million in Q4 06. Production and inventory wise, AMD will have no problem supplying 23-24 million CPUs in a quarter. As long as they don't fuck up pricing, they can sell them, the production capacity is in place.
<<<<<<<<<<Pirasa, let's try a different perspective, shall we?
23-24M units in Q4 2007 from AMD. Let's say the overall market grows by 10% from 70M to 77M. That means AMD will achieve their long-time goal of 30%, which will be huge news indeed.
In any case, you're on the record predicting 24M units for Q4 and one million quad cores shipped in Q4 alone. I think your prediction is totally far-fetched, but then again, it's your money.
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