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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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From: 1coolpiglet	8/9/2007 11:16:38 AM
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A report indicating a market tighter than last year on a weather-adjusted basis... definitely a surprise. No doubt the LNG import drop last week had a big affect, and I am not denying that some shut-ins are already taking place. Nevertheless, the trend from last year remains in place...at these high levels of generation (93.5KGWH last week), the injection slope is extremely steep, even exponential. One thing to keep in mind is LNG imports are reported to be back up to elevated levels this week, but again, the generation demand is hard to overcome when you are at or near records and the peakers are running (My WAG is 100KGWH this week). Could NG be in the process of dodging the full storage, price crash bullet that has been discussed on this board and elsewhere at length? Just a week ago we were considering it (and reasonably so) a less than 10% event. I don't know what the percentage is now, but given that the September contract seems safe, there is only the October contract left to punish if and when capacity is challenged. And the "if" is more pronounced each day this heat goes on.

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